I believe that voluntary exchange creates mutual benefit. Trade is cooperation, not exploitation, when both parties consent and information is honest.

Confidence

High

Current support

• People trade when they expect to be better off, not worse off.
• Prosperity grows when individuals can specialize and exchange freely.
• Sample: WTO reports that trade-open economies grew faster on average over recent decades than highly closed economies.

What could disprove it

Show that banning or heavily restricting voluntary exchange improves welfare more than allowing it under honest rules.

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I believe that property rights enable long-term planning and investment. People care for what they own and build; societies that undermine ownership undermine prosperity.

Confidence

High

Current support

• Uncertain property rights discourage saving, building, and maintenance.
• Economic development correlates strongly with secure ownership.
• Sample: de Soto estimated trillions in 'dead capital' locked in extralegal property among the poor without formal titles (IMF Finance & Development, 2001).

What could disprove it

Show that weakening property rights increases investment, care for resources, and long-term prosperity.

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I believe that poverty is reduced more reliably by opportunity than by resentment. Benevolence should aim at lifting people up, not only redistributing down.

Confidence

Medium

Current support

• Markets and mobility have lifted billions out of extreme poverty in recent decades.
• Resentment politics often distracts from reforms that expand earning and learning.
• Sample: World Bank — extreme poverty (~$3/day, 2021 PPP) fell from ~44% of world population (1990) to ~10.5% (2022); ~1.5 billion people lifted out.

What could disprove it

Show that societies focused primarily on resentment and restriction outperform those focused on opportunity and exchange for reducing poverty.

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I believe that incentives shape behavior, and good systems align incentives with virtue. A society that rewards cheating will not remain benevolent.

Confidence

High

Current support

• People respond to what is rewarded and punished, not only to speeches.
• Perverse incentives corrupt medicine, education, politics, and business alike.
• Sample: Soviet nail factory anecdote (targets by weight vs count) — classic illustration of Goodhart's Law and perverse incentives.

What could disprove it

Show that incentive structures consistently matter less than rhetoric in determining social outcomes.

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I believe that honest money and honest contracts are social glue. Deception in economic life destroys trust across the whole society.

Confidence

High

Current support

• Counterfeiting, fraud, and broken contracts erode cooperation.
• Stable exchange requires predictable rules and truthful dealing.
• Sample: Reinhart & Rogoff catalog 800+ years of sovereign defaults — debasement and broken promises recur when contracts are not honored.

What could disprove it

Show that widespread economic deception strengthens social trust and benevolence.

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